1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 5

Olimpija Ljubljana–Maribor

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.8% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Olimpija LjubljanaJ. Urbancic (assist: D. Mitrovski)
85'MariborL. Zahović (assist: N. Viher)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.13 · Maribor 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

M. Tozan→

3.72

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “Olimpija Ljubljana to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 1.22 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 720 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win32.6%

Draw30.1%

Maribor to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time22.8%

Level at half-time45.4%

Maribor lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead77.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 719 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 12
Maribor: at least 11

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 4
Maribor: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.13

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maribor score1.22

Attack: Maribor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–110.8%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.