1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 4

Mura–Radomlje

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 10 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mestni stadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'RadomljeV. Pelko (assist: B. Burcul)
83'RadomljeJ. Balic
89'RadomljeA. Bosec
90'MuraS. Butic

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mura 1.63 · Radomlje 1.34. On the pitch: 1-3.

Referee

D. Sabanagic→

3.88

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Mura to win”. Second comes “Radomlje to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Mura, 1.34 for Radomlje.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 718 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mura to win43.6%

Draw26.1%

Radomlje to win30.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–1

Mura lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time40.2%

Radomlje lead at half-time32.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Mura ahead or level67.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Radomlje ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 717 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mura: at least 10
Radomlje: at least 11

Corners

Mura: at least 4
Radomlje: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mura score1.63

Attack: Mura score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radomlje score1.34

Attack: Radomlje score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mura's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.0%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.