1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 3

Celje–Maribor

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

4'MariborZ. Repas (assist: J. Mlakar)
79'CeljeDarko Hrka (assist: Mario Kvesić)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celje 1.80 · Maribor 1.16. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

R. Obrenovic→

4.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Celje to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Celje, 1.16 for Maribor.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Celje win or draw).
These values were computed from 710 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celje to win52.1%

Draw24.9%

Maribor to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Celje win or draw77.0%

12 — any result other than a draw75.1%

X2 — draw or Maribor win47.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Celje lead at half-time30.8%

Level at half-time39.8%

Maribor lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Celje ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Maribor ahead69.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celje: at least 11
Maribor: at least 10

Corners

Celje: at least 4
Maribor: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celje score1.80

Attack: Celje score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.80 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Maribor score1.16

Attack: Maribor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.8%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.