Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 4

FC Luzern–Lausanne

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Thermoplan Arena, Luzern

Goals and red cards

3'FC LuzernMatteo Di Giusto

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Luzern		Lausanne
17	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
389	Passes	432
295	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Luzern 1.84 · Lausanne 1.46. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Luzern 17 · Lausanne 6; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

Sandro Schärer, Switzerland→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “FC Luzern to win”. Second comes “Lausanne to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for FC Luzern, 1.46 for Lausanne.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 837 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Luzern to win46.0%

Draw24.5%

Lausanne to win29.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Luzern win or draw70.5%

12 — any result other than a draw75.5%

X2 — draw or Lausanne win54.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Luzern lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time40.3%

Lausanne lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Luzern ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Lausanne ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 837 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Luzern: at least 12Actual: 11
Lausanne: at least 10Actual: 19

Corners

FC Luzern: at least 5Actual: 7
Lausanne: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 58.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Luzern score1.84

Attack: FC Luzern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lausanne's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lausanne score1.46

Attack: Lausanne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Luzern's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–110.0%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 837 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 107 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.