First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 10

Levski Sofia–Ludogorets

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Postponed
Venue: Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sophia

The match was postponed. This page updates once the provider announces a new date; the probabilities below were computed with the data available before the postponement.

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Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Levski Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Levski Sofia, 0.82 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (1X — Levski Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Sofia to win48.1%

Draw30.1%

Ludogorets to win21.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Levski Sofia win or draw78.2%

12 — any result other than a draw69.9%

X2 — draw or Ludogorets win51.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.1%).

First half

Levski Sofia lead at half-time35.2%

Level at half-time50.0%

Ludogorets lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Levski Sofia ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time50.0%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead64.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levski Sofia: at least 10
Ludogorets: at least 11

Corners

Levski Sofia: at least 4
Ludogorets: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (43.9%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Sofia score1.32

Attack: Levski Sofia score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ludogorets score0.82

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 51% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.82 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–015.0%1–114.7%0–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.