First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 7

Arda Kardzhali–Botev Vratsa

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 31 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Arda KardzhaliD. Yankov
85'Arda KardzhaliA. Vutov (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arda Kardzhali		Botev Vratsa
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.59 · Botev Vratsa 0.67. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Arda Kardzhali 0 · Botev Vratsa 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Vasil Minev, Bulgaria→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.5%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.67 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 85.7% (1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,059 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win59.5%

Draw26.2%

Botev Vratsa to win14.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time48.9%

Level at half-time43.6%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time7.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level92.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead51.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1059 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 11
Botev Vratsa: at least 11

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 4
Botev Vratsa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.59

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.67

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.1%2–013.5%1–112.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.