First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 6

Lokomotiv Plovdiv–Arda Kardzhali

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 24 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Lokomotiv PlovdivJ. Lamy · red card
66'Arda KardzhaliD. Yankov (assist: S. Ivanov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lokomotiv Plovdiv		Arda Kardzhali
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.97 · Arda Kardzhali 1.11. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 · Arda Kardzhali 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Volen Chinkov, Bulgaria→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 1.11 for Arda Kardzhali.
The highest double chance value is 69.7% (X2 — draw or Arda Kardzhali win).
These values were computed from 1,052 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win30.3%

Draw32.1%

Arda Kardzhali to win37.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

3	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time21.6%

Level at half-time47.0%

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Arda Kardzhali ahead78.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1052 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 12
Arda Kardzhali: at least 10

Corners

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 4
Arda Kardzhali: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score0.97

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.11

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–113.2%0–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.