First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 6

Levski Sofia–Spartak Varna

6–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Levski SofiaA. Oko-Flex
15'Levski SofiaJ. Perea
60'Levski SofiaDavid Kusso
64'Levski SofiaA. Oko-Flex (assist: M. Soula)
79'Spartak VarnaVasco Oliveira · red card
87'Levski SofiaS. Stoyanchov
90'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levski Sofia		Spartak Varna
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Sofia 2.31 · Spartak Varna 0.36. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots Levski Sofia 0 · Spartak Varna 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Georgi Dimitrov, Bulgaria→

5.33

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.6%: “Levski Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.31 for Levski Sofia, 0.36 for Spartak Varna.
The highest double chance value is 96.4% (1X — Levski Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,049 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Sofia to win82.6%

Draw13.8%

Spartak Varna to win3.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 501 of 593 predictions were correct (84.5%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Levski Sofia lead at half-time55.9%

Level at half-time39.6%

Spartak Varna lead at half-time4.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Levski Sofia ahead or level95.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Spartak Varna ahead44.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1049 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levski Sofia: at least 10
Spartak Varna: at least 11

Corners

Levski Sofia: at least 8
Spartak Varna: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Sofia score2.31

Attack: Levski Sofia score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.31 goals.

How many goals Spartak Varna score0.36

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.3%1–015.5%3–014.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.