First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 5

CSKA 1948–Cherno More Varna

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 14 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Cherno More VarnaM. Achi (assist: João Bandaró)
40'CSKA 1948Frederic
52'CSKA 1948A. Iliev
63'CSKA 1948Frederic (assist: A. Iliev)
82'CSKA 1948E. Franco (assist: B. Benamar)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.56 · Cherno More Varna 0.79. On the pitch: 4-1.

Referee

M. Grebencharski→

4.60

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.5%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for CSKA 1948, 0.79 for Cherno More Varna.
The highest double chance value is 82.5% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,041 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win55.5%

Draw26.9%

Cherno More Varna to win17.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–1

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time40.8%

Level at half-time44.9%

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Cherno More Varna ahead59.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1041 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10
Cherno More Varna: at least 11

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 4
Cherno More Varna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.56

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cherno More Varna score0.79

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948 concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%1–113.5%2–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.