First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 4

Botev Plovdiv–Spartak Varna

3–2

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Monday, 10 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Botev PlovdivFranklin Mascote (assist: V. Mendes)
28'Botev PlovdivA. Chandarov (assist: C. Meotti)
39'Botev PlovdivS. Kalu (assist: C. Meotti)
58'Spartak VarnaS. Petrov (own goal)
90'Spartak VarnaA. Ahmedov (assist: A. Ivanov)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv 1.57 · Spartak Varna 0.96. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

M. Pavlov→

5.31

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Botev Plovdiv, 0.96 for Spartak Varna.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — Botev Plovdiv win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,040 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Plovdiv to win51.2%

Draw27.1%

Spartak Varna to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 3–0

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time46.6%

Spartak Varna lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Spartak Varna ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1040 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Plovdiv: at least 11
Spartak Varna: at least 11

Corners

Botev Plovdiv: at least 6
Spartak Varna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.57

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spartak Varna score0.96

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–011.8%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.