First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 3

Spartak Varna–Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 3 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Spartak, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Spartak VarnaDavid Valverde Juan

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spartak Varna 1.03 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.24. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

N. Popov→

4.54

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Spartak Varna, 1.24 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv win).
These values were computed from 1,033 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spartak Varna to win29.5%

Draw30.4%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win40.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Spartak Varna win or draw59.9%

12 — any result other than a draw69.6%

X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv win70.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Spartak Varna lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time48.5%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Spartak Varna ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time51.5%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1033 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spartak Varna: at least 9
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 13

Corners

Spartak Varna: at least 3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.03

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.24

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–112.0%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.