Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 9

Slovácko–Baník Ostrava

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovácko		Baník Ostrava
11	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
305	Passes	269
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovácko 1.38 · Baník Ostrava 1.26. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Slovácko 11 · Baník Ostrava 12; on target 3 and 6.

Announced lineup

Slovácko

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: Jan Jelinek

Starting XI

Milan Hečagoalkeeper
Andrej Stojchevskidefender
Simon Sloncikdefender
Jocelin Behiratchedefender
Patrik Blahútmidfielder
Tihomir Kostadinovmidfielder
Michal Trávníkmidfielder
Gigli Ndefemidfielder
Lukáš Vorlickýforward
Marek Havlíkforward
David Puškáčforward

Substitutes

Adam Alabi

Referee

Jan Machalek, Czechia→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Slovácko to win”. Second comes “Baník Ostrava to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Slovácko, 1.27 for Baník Ostrava.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,085 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovácko to win38.0%

Draw28.2%

Baník Ostrava to win33.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Baník Ostrava

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: Roman Skuhravy

Starting XI

Martin Jedličkagoalkeeper
Maksym Diachukdefender
Roan Noghadefender
Michal Frydrychdefender
Abdullahi Bewenemidfielder
Aboubacar Traoremidfielder
Jiří Boulamidfielder
Dantaye Gilbertmidfielder
Filip Kubalaforward
Artúr Musákforward
Vit Skrkonforward

Substitutes

Daniel Holzer
Filip Šancl
Matěj Chaluš
Matúš Kmeť
Michal Kohút
Rhodri Smith
Václav Jurečka
Viktor Budinský
Yevgeniy Skyba

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 16:04.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,524 of 6,225 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Slovácko win or draw66.3%

12 — any result other than a draw71.8%

X2 — draw or Baník Ostrava win62.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Slovácko lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time43.5%

Baník Ostrava lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovácko ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Baník Ostrava ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1085 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovácko: at least 10Actual: 6
Baník Ostrava: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Slovácko: at least 4
Baník Ostrava: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (53.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovácko score1.38

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Baník Ostrava score1.26

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.2%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1085 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 138 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.