Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 8

Bohemians 1905–Slovácko

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'SlováckoJocelin Behiratche · red card
19'Bohemians 1905Ladislav Almási (assist: Vojtěch Smrž)
90'Bohemians 1905Šimon Černý (assist: Roman Kvet)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bohemians 1905		Slovácko
19	Shots	4
8	Shots on target	0
16	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
473	Passes	415
411	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bohemians 1905 1.61 · Slovácko 0.96. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bohemians 1905 19 · Slovácko 4; on target 8 and 0.
Bohemians 1905 kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “Bohemians 1905 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Bohemians 1905, 0.96 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Bohemians 1905 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,074 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bohemians 1905 to win52.3%

Draw26.7%

Slovácko to win21.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time35.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Slovácko lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead64.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1074 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bohemians 1905: at least 13Actual: 16
Slovácko: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Bohemians 1905: at least 5Actual: 6
Slovácko: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score1.61

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovácko score0.96

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–011.6%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.