Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 7

Slovácko–Pardubice

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovácko		Pardubice
14	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
452	Passes	317
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovácko 1.34 · Pardubice 1.27. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Slovácko 14 · Pardubice 9; on target 2 and 4.
Slovácko kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Slovácko to win”. Second comes “Pardubice to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Slovácko, 1.27 for Pardubice.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovácko to win37.4%

Draw28.4%

Pardubice to win34.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Slovácko win or draw65.8%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Pardubice win62.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Slovácko lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time44.6%

Pardubice lead at half-time30.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovácko ahead or level70.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Pardubice ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovácko: at least 10Actual: 9
Pardubice: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

Slovácko: at least 4Actual: 5
Pardubice: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovácko score1.34

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pardubice's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pardubice score1.27

Attack: Pardubice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.1%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.