Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 7

Mlada Boleslav–Baník Ostrava

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Mlada BoleslavMartin Šubert (assist: Solomon John)
20'Mlada BoleslavMartin Šubert
52'Mlada BoleslavSolomon John (assist: Denis Donát)
83'Mlada BoleslavJosef Kolářík (assist: Daniel Langhamer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mlada Boleslav		Baník Ostrava
14	Shots	23
9	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
1	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
442	Passes	402
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mlada Boleslav 1.56 · Baník Ostrava 1.25. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Mlada Boleslav 14 · Baník Ostrava 23; on target 9 and 5.
Mlada Boleslav kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Jan Vsetecka, Czechia→

4.83

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.7%: “Mlada Boleslav to win”. Second comes “Baník Ostrava to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Mlada Boleslav, 1.25 for Baník Ostrava.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,068 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mlada Boleslav to win43.7%

Draw26.9%

Baník Ostrava to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time40.7%

Baník Ostrava lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Mlada Boleslav ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Baník Ostrava ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1068 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mlada Boleslav: at least 10Actual: 8
Baník Ostrava: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Mlada Boleslav: at least 4Actual: 1
Baník Ostrava: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score1.56

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Baník Ostrava score1.25

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.0%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.