Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 7

Slavia Praha–Zbrojovka Brno

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Andrův stadion, Olomouc

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Slavia PrahaT. Chorý (penalty)
65'Slavia PrahaT. Chorý (assist: S. Isife)
76'Slavia PrahaE. Ayaosi (assist: D. Šturm)
88'Slavia PrahaD. Jurásek (assist: E. Ayaosi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Praha		Zbrojovka Brno
16	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
308	Passes	343
231	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 2.12 · Zbrojovka Brno 0.71. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Slavia Praha 16 · Zbrojovka Brno 11; on target 6 and 0.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.6%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for Slavia Praha, 0.71 for Zbrojovka Brno.
The highest double chance value is 90.1% (1X — Slavia Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win70.6%

Draw19.5%

Zbrojovka Brno to win9.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Slavia Praha lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time46.1%

Zbrojovka Brno lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Praha ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Zbrojovka Brno ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Praha: at least 10Actual: 14
Zbrojovka Brno: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Slavia Praha: at least 6Actual: 5
Zbrojovka Brno: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score2.12

Attack: Slavia Praha score 72% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Zbrojovka Brno concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zbrojovka Brno score0.71

Attack: Zbrojovka Brno score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.7%1–011.8%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.