Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 6

Sparta Praha–Slavia Praha

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Slavia PrahaW. Nowak
59'Slavia PrahaD. Šturm (assist: D. Moses)
90+2'Slavia PrahaE. Ayaosi (assist: M. Sadílek)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		Slavia Praha
22	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	5
16	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
13	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
71%	Possession	29%
461	Passes	193
400	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 1.23 · Slavia Praha 1.60. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Sparta Praha 22 · Slavia Praha 8; on target 5 and 5.
Sparta Praha kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

Jan Machalek, Czechia→

4.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “Sparta Praha to win” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Sparta Praha, 1.60 for Slavia Praha.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,061 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win27.9%

Draw26.6%

Slavia Praha to win45.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	24

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sparta Praha lead at half-time18.6%

Level at half-time38.7%

Slavia Praha lead at half-time42.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Praha ahead or level57.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Slavia Praha ahead81.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1061 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Praha: at least 10Actual: 13
Slavia Praha: at least 12Actual: 24

Corners

Sparta Praha: at least 5Actual: 13
Slavia Praha: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score1.23

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.23 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Slavia Praha score1.60

Attack: Slavia Praha score 71% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.60 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.2%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.