Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 6

Teplice–FK Jablonec

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

80'TepliceJ. Auta (assist: O. Vientiess)
88'TepliceM. Radosta (assist: M. Pulkrab)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Teplice		FK Jablonec
15	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
285	Passes	492
211	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Teplice 1.22 · FK Jablonec 1.37. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Teplice 15 · FK Jablonec 8; on target 5 and 1.
FK Jablonec kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

O. Pechanec→

4.85

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.4%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “Teplice to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Teplice, 1.37 for FK Jablonec.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,059 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Teplice to win32.2%

Draw28.4%

FK Jablonec to win39.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Teplice lead at half-time26.0%

Level at half-time40.0%

FK Jablonec lead at half-time34.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Teplice ahead or level66.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or FK Jablonec ahead74.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1059 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Teplice: at least 12Actual: 16
FK Jablonec: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Teplice: at least 4Actual: 6
FK Jablonec: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Teplice score1.22

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.37

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–29.4%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.