Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 6

Plzen–Slovácko

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'PlzenT. Ladra
82'SlováckoP. Ndubuisi (assist: M. Travnik)
86'SlováckoT. Kostadinov · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Plzen		Slovácko
13	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
465	Passes	380
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Plzen 2.31 · Slovácko 0.77. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Plzen 13 · Slovácko 8; on target 4 and 3.
Plzen kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Jan Benes, Czechia→

6.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.7%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.31 for Plzen, 0.77 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 90.5% (1X — Plzen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,059 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Plzen to win72.7%

Draw17.9%

Slovácko to win9.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	20

4	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Plzen lead at half-time68.7%

Level at half-time27.0%

Slovácko lead at half-time4.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Plzen ahead or level95.7%

12 — not level at half-time73.0%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead31.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1059 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Plzen: at least 12Actual: 12
Slovácko: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

Plzen: at least 5Actual: 5
Slovácko: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Plzen score2.31

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Slovácko concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.31 goals.

How many goals Slovácko score0.77

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%2–110.4%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.