Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 6

Zbrojovka Brno–Zlin

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Zbrojovka BrnoDaniel Vašulín (assist: Antonin Vanicek)
58'ZlinM. Fukala (assist: Marián Pišoja)
59'Zbrojovka BrnoMiloš Kopečný (own goal)
86'ZlinJakub Černín (assist: Marián Pišoja)
90+3'Zbrojovka BrnoFilip Vedral (assist: Amadou Dante)
90+10'Zlin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zbrojovka Brno		Zlin
9	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
382	Passes	347
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zbrojovka Brno 1.78 · Zlin 0.84. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Zbrojovka Brno 9 · Zlin 11; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

Antonin Bohata, Czechia→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.6%: “Zbrojovka Brno to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Zbrojovka Brno, 0.84 for Zlin.
The highest double chance value is 84.0% (1X — Zbrojovka Brno win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,055 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zbrojovka Brno to win59.6%

Draw24.4%

Zlin to win16.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Zbrojovka Brno lead at half-time43.5%

Level at half-time42.4%

Zlin lead at half-time14.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Zbrojovka Brno ahead or level86.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Zlin ahead56.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1055 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zbrojovka Brno: at least 12Actual: 8
Zlin: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Zbrojovka Brno: at least 4Actual: 6
Zlin: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zbrojovka Brno score1.78

Attack: Zbrojovka Brno score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zlin concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zlin score0.84

Attack: Zlin score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zbrojovka Brno concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–012.2%2–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.