Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 6

Bohemians 1905–Mlada Boleslav

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Postponed

The match was postponed. This page updates once the provider announces a new date; the probabilities below were computed with the data available before the postponement.

Share on X

Referee

K. Roucek→

3.74

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Bohemians 1905 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Bohemians 1905, 1.16 for Mlada Boleslav.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (1X — Bohemians 1905 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,055 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bohemians 1905 to win46.4%

Draw26.9%

Mlada Boleslav to win26.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 win or draw73.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Mlada Boleslav win53.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time43.3%

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Mlada Boleslav ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1055 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bohemians 1905: at least 13
Mlada Boleslav: at least 10

Corners

Bohemians 1905: at least 6
Mlada Boleslav: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (53.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score1.58

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score1.16

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.3%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.