Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 5

Sigma Olomouc–Pardubice

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'Sigma OlomoucD. Janosek
55'Sigma OlomoucPéter Baráth (assist: D. Janosek)
65'Sigma OlomoucA. Ghali (assist: D. Janosek)
69'PardubiceJan Trédl · red card
89'PardubiceRyan Mahuta (assist: Tobias Boledovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sigma Olomouc		Pardubice
14	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
476	Passes	278
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sigma Olomouc 1.55 · Pardubice 1.06. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Sigma Olomouc 14 · Pardubice 5; on target 4 and 1.
Sigma Olomouc kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Vit Zaoral, Czechia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Sigma Olomouc to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Sigma Olomouc, 1.06 for Pardubice.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Sigma Olomouc win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,054 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sigma Olomouc to win48.2%

Draw27.3%

Pardubice to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sigma Olomouc lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time42.7%

Pardubice lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sigma Olomouc ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Pardubice ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1054 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sigma Olomouc: at least 11Actual: 10
Pardubice: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Sigma Olomouc: at least 5Actual: 5
Pardubice: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score1.55

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pardubice's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pardubice score1.06

Attack: Pardubice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.6%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.