Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 5

Hradec Králové–Plzen

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'PlzenD. Vavro · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Plzen
16	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
58%	Possession	42%
446	Passes	452
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.26 · Plzen 1.45. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Hradec Králové 16 · Plzen 7; on target 3 and 2.
Hradec Králové kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Dalibor Cerny, Czechia→

3.55

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.6%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “Hradec Králové to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Hradec Králové, 1.45 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,073 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win31.7%

Draw27.7%

Plzen to win40.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hradec Králové lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time40.5%

Plzen lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Plzen ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1073 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 11Actual: 9
Plzen: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 3Actual: 10
Plzen: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.26

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plzen concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score1.45

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.6%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.