Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 5

Teplice–Zbrojovka Brno

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Zbrojovka BrnoAntonin Vanicek
72'Zbrojovka BrnoAntonin Vanicek

Match statistics

Match statistics
Teplice		Zbrojovka Brno
15	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
372	Passes	352
273	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Teplice 1.23 · Zbrojovka Brno 1.37. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Teplice 15 · Zbrojovka Brno 7; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

Kubecka Matej, Czechia→

2.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Zbrojovka Brno to win”. Second comes “Teplice to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Teplice, 1.37 for Zbrojovka Brno.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,053 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Teplice to win32.4%

Draw28.3%

Zbrojovka Brno to win39.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Teplice lead at half-time21.9%

Level at half-time45.1%

Zbrojovka Brno lead at half-time33.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Teplice ahead or level67.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Zbrojovka Brno ahead78.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1053 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Teplice: at least 10Actual: 12
Zbrojovka Brno: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Teplice: at least 5Actual: 4
Zbrojovka Brno: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Teplice score1.23

Attack: Teplice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zbrojovka Brno's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zbrojovka Brno score1.37

Attack: Zbrojovka Brno score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–29.4%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.