Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 5

Slavia Praha–Bohemians 1905

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Andrův stadion, Olomouc

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Slavia PrahaM. Suleiman
30'Bohemians 1905Ladislav Almási (assist: Milan Havel)
75'Slavia PrahaT. Chorý (assist: Š. Chaloupek)
89'Bohemians 1905Roman Kvet (assist: David Heidenreich)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Praha		Bohemians 1905
26	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	2
19	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
408	Passes	269
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 2.35 · Bohemians 1905 0.60. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Slavia Praha 26 · Bohemians 1905 5; on target 7 and 2.
Slavia Praha kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Dalibor Cerny, Czechia→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.5%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Slavia Praha, 0.60 for Bohemians 1905.
The highest double chance value is 93.4% (1X — Slavia Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,052 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win77.5%

Draw16.0%

Bohemians 1905 to win6.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Slavia Praha lead at half-time55.6%

Level at half-time36.2%

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time8.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Praha ahead or level91.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.8%

X2 — level or Bohemians 1905 ahead44.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1052 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Praha: at least 10Actual: 15
Bohemians 1905: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Slavia Praha: at least 6Actual: 11
Bohemians 1905: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score2.35

Attack: Slavia Praha score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score0.60

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.0%3–011.7%1–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.