Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 4

Sparta Praha–Teplice

4–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Sparta PrahaTobias Kvalvagnes Guddal (assist: Andy Irving)
25'TepliceL. Marecek
36'Sparta PrahaAndy Irving (assist: Josimar Alcócer)
39'Sparta PrahaJosimar Alcócer (assist: John Mercado)
84'Sparta PrahaJosimar Alcócer (assist: Matěj Ryneš)
88'TepliceL. Takacs

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		Teplice
27	Shots	13
13	Shots on target	5
17	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	9
10	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
522	Passes	283
482	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 1.98 · Teplice 0.80. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Sparta Praha 27 · Teplice 13; on target 13 and 5.
Sparta Praha kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

D. Cerny→

3.95

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.6%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Sparta Praha, 0.80 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 87.3% (1X — Sparta Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,043 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win65.6%

Draw21.7%

Teplice to win12.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 3–1

Sparta Praha lead at half-time44.9%

Level at half-time39.3%

Teplice lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Praha ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead55.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1043 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Praha: at least 11Actual: 12
Teplice: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Sparta Praha: at least 5Actual: 10
Teplice: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score1.98

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score0.80

Attack: Teplice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%1–011.6%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.