Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 3

Hradec Králové–Baník Ostrava

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Hradec KrálovéT. Sloncik
43'Baník OstravaYevgeniy Skyba · red card
53'Baník OstravaMatěj Chaluš (assist: Roan Nogha)
63'Hradec KrálovéT. Sloncik

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Baník Ostrava
16	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
502	Passes	361
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.60 · Baník Ostrava 1.06. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hradec Králové 16 · Baník Ostrava 12; on target 4 and 4.
Hradec Králové kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Kubecka Matej, Czechia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Hradec Králové to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Hradec Králové, 1.06 for Baník Ostrava.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (1X — Hradec Králové win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,040 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win49.6%

Draw26.8%

Baník Ostrava to win23.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hradec Králové lead at half-time47.9%

Level at half-time39.2%

Baník Ostrava lead at half-time12.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level87.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Baník Ostrava ahead52.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1040 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 10Actual: 7
Baník Ostrava: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 4Actual: 3
Baník Ostrava: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.60

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Baník Ostrava score1.06

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.5%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.