Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 3

Zbrojovka Brno–Slovan Liberec

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Slovan LiberecPatrik Dulay

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zbrojovka Brno		Slovan Liberec
8	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
371	Passes	399
274	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zbrojovka Brno 1.75 · Slovan Liberec 0.82. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Zbrojovka Brno 8 · Slovan Liberec 16; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.6%: “Zbrojovka Brno to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Zbrojovka Brno, 0.82 for Slovan Liberec.
The highest double chance value is 84.2% (1X — Zbrojovka Brno win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,035 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zbrojovka Brno to win59.6%

Draw24.6%

Slovan Liberec to win15.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Zbrojovka Brno win or draw84.2%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Slovan Liberec win40.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Zbrojovka Brno lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time45.9%

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Zbrojovka Brno ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Slovan Liberec ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1035 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zbrojovka Brno: at least 11Actual: 11
Slovan Liberec: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Zbrojovka Brno: at least 5Actual: 2
Slovan Liberec: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zbrojovka Brno score1.75

Attack: Zbrojovka Brno score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovan Liberec score0.82

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zbrojovka Brno concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.8%1–112.5%2–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.