Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 2

Plzen–Zbrojovka Brno

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.6% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'PlzenC. Kabongo (assist: A. Sojka)
58'Zbrojovka BrnoDaniel Vašulín (assist: Tadeáš Vachoušek)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Plzen		Zbrojovka Brno
13	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
495	Passes	377
435	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Plzen 1.59 · Zbrojovka Brno 1.58. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Plzen 13 · Zbrojovka Brno 6; on target 2 and 2.
Plzen kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Dominik Stary, Czechia→

3.18

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “Zbrojovka Brno to win” at 36.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Plzen, 1.58 for Zbrojovka Brno.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,031 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Plzen to win37.5%

Draw25.5%

Zbrojovka Brno to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Plzen lead at half-time14.2%

Level at half-time40.8%

Zbrojovka Brno lead at half-time44.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Plzen ahead or level55.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Zbrojovka Brno ahead85.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1031 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Plzen: at least 8Actual: 13
Zbrojovka Brno: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Plzen: at least 6Actual: 5
Zbrojovka Brno: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Plzen score1.59

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Zbrojovka Brno's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zbrojovka Brno score1.58

Attack: Zbrojovka Brno score 72% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Plzen concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.