Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 2

Baník Ostrava–Slavia Praha

0–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Slavia PrahaW. Nowak (assist: M. Sadílek)
14'Slavia PrahaD. Zima (assist: M. Sadílek)
35'Slavia PrahaM. Sadílek (assist: A. Ouanda)
90'Slavia PrahaE. Ayaosi (assist: I. Schranz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Baník Ostrava		Slavia Praha
9	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	12
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
11	Corners	9
0	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
329	Passes	310
249	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Baník Ostrava 0.83 · Slavia Praha 2.07. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Baník Ostrava 9 · Slavia Praha 15; on target 1 and 5.

Referee

Stanislav Volek, Czechia→

4.30

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.6%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.83 for Baník Ostrava, 2.07 for Slavia Praha.
The highest double chance value is 87.4% (X2 — draw or Slavia Praha win).
These values were computed from 1,028 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Baník Ostrava to win12.6%

Draw20.9%

Slavia Praha to win66.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Baník Ostrava lead at half-time9.5%

Level at half-time35.1%

Slavia Praha lead at half-time55.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Baník Ostrava ahead or level44.6%

12 — not level at half-time64.9%

X2 — level or Slavia Praha ahead90.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1028 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Baník Ostrava: at least 11Actual: 10
Slavia Praha: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Baník Ostrava: at least 4Actual: 11
Slavia Praha: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Baník Ostrava score0.83

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slavia Praha score2.07

Attack: Slavia Praha score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.1%1–210.8%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.