Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 1

Hradec Králové–Pardubice

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'Hradec KrálovéM. van Buren
56'Hradec KrálovéFrantišek Čech (assist: D. Horak)
60'PardubiceTobias Boledovic (assist: Jan Trédl)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Pardubice
10	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	3
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
418	Passes	334
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.72 · Pardubice 0.94. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hradec Králové 10 · Pardubice 12; on target 4 and 7.
Hradec Králové kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Ondrej Berka, Czechia→

3.38

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Hradec Králové to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Hradec Králové, 0.94 for Pardubice.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (1X — Hradec Králové win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win55.7%

Draw25.3%

Pardubice to win19.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hradec Králové lead at half-time43.3%

Level at half-time41.8%

Pardubice lead at half-time14.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level85.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Pardubice ahead56.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1025 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 10Actual: 14
Pardubice: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 4Actual: 3
Pardubice: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.72

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pardubice's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pardubice score0.94

Attack: Pardubice score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–011.2%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.