Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 1

Slavia Praha–Slovácko

5–1

HT 4–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Andrův stadion, Olomouc

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'SlováckoPavel Juroška (assist: David Puškáč)
14'Slavia PrahaM. Chytil (assist: A. N'Guessan)
16'Slavia PrahaW. Nowak
35'Slavia PrahaA. Ouanda (assist: D. Šturm)
45'Slavia PrahaW. Nowak
60'SlováckoPavel Juroška · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Praha		Slovácko
15	Shots	5
10	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
451	Passes	315
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 2.84 · Slovácko 0.37. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Slavia Praha 15 · Slovácko 5; on target 10 and 1.
Slavia Praha kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Ondrej Pechanec, Czechia→

5.75

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 88.7%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.84 for Slavia Praha, 0.37 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 97.8% (1X — Slavia Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,023 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win88.7%

Draw9.1%

Slovácko to win2.2%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 4–1

Slavia Praha lead at half-time73.6%

Level at half-time24.9%

Slovácko lead at half-time1.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Praha ahead or level98.5%

12 — not level at half-time75.1%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead26.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1023 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Praha: at least 12Actual: 22
Slovácko: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Slavia Praha: at least 7
Slovácko: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score2.84

Attack: Slavia Praha score 66% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.84 goals.

How many goals Slovácko score0.37

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.9%3–016.3%4–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.