Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Frosinone–Udinese

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 May 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'UdineseKeinan Davis (assist: Lorenzo Lucca)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Frosinone		Udinese
21	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
373	Passes	266
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Frosinone 1.44 · Udinese 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Frosinone 21 · Udinese 10; on target 5 and 5.
Frosinone kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Doveri→

3.73

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “Frosinone to win”. Second comes “Udinese to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Frosinone, 1.19 for Udinese.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 755 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Frosinone to win38.9%

Draw28.9%

Udinese to win32.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Frosinone lead at half-time28.0%

Level at half-time44.0%

Udinese lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Frosinone ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Udinese ahead72.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 755 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Frosinone: at least 10Actual: 6
Udinese: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Frosinone: at least 6Actual: 11
Udinese: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Frosinone score1.44

Attack: Frosinone score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Udinese's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Udinese score1.22

Attack: Udinese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Frosinone concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.8%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.