Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 38

AC Milan–Salernitana

3–3

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 May 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 9%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'AC MilanR. Leao
27'AC MilanO. Giroud (assist: A. Florenzi)
64'SalernitanaS. Nwankwo (assist: J. Sambia)
77'AC MilanD. Calabria (assist: Christian Pulišić)
87'SalernitanaJ. Sambia
89'SalernitanaS. Nwankwo

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Milan		Salernitana
23	Shots	14
11	Shots on target	6
22	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
13	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
535	Passes	276
467	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Milan 2.75 · Salernitana 0.51. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots AC Milan 23 · Salernitana 14; on target 11 and 6.
AC Milan kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

D. Di Marco→

4.87

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 87.3%: “AC Milan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.37 for AC Milan, 0.74 for Salernitana.
The highest double chance value is 96.2% (1X — AC Milan win or draw).
These values were computed from 752 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Milan to win87.3%

Draw8.9%

Salernitana to win3.8%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

AC Milan lead at half-time73.2%

Level at half-time25.9%

Salernitana lead at half-time0.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Milan ahead or level99.1%

12 — not level at half-time74.1%

X2 — level or Salernitana ahead26.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 752 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Milan: at least 11Actual: 6
Salernitana: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

AC Milan: at least 6Actual: 13
Salernitana: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Milan score2.75

Attack: AC Milan score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Salernitana concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.75 goals.

How many goals Salernitana score0.51

Attack: Salernitana score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AC Milan's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.8%2–09.2%4–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.