Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Monza–Frosinone

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 May 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'FrosinoneW. Cheddira (assist: A. Harroui)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monza		Frosinone
14	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
599	Passes	243
518	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monza 1.53 · Frosinone 1.23. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Monza 14 · Frosinone 16; on target 2 and 5.
Monza kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

M. Fabbri→

4.64

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Frosinone to win”. Second comes “Monza to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Monza, 1.60 for Frosinone.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 743 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monza to win31.5%

Draw26.3%

Frosinone to win42.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Monza win or draw57.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or Frosinone win68.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Monza lead at half-time40.2%

Level at half-time43.0%

Frosinone lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Monza ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Frosinone ahead59.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 743 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Monza: at least 11Actual: 14
Frosinone: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Monza: at least 4Actual: 3
Frosinone: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monza score1.53

Attack: Monza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Frosinone concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Frosinone score1.23

Attack: Frosinone score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 743 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 36 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.