Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 36

Juventus–Salernitana

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Torino

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 11%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'SalernitanaNiccolò Pierozzi (assist: J. Sambia)
90+1'JuventusAdrien Rabiot (assist: M. Locatelli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juventus		Salernitana
25	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
515	Passes	258
444	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juventus 2.29 · Salernitana 0.49. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Juventus 25 · Salernitana 13; on target 6 and 4.
Juventus kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Santoro→

5.66

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.3%: “Juventus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.93 for Juventus, 0.65 for Salernitana.
The highest double chance value is 95.5% (1X — Juventus win or draw).
These values were computed from 735 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juventus to win84.3%

Draw11.2%

Salernitana to win4.5%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Juventus lead at half-time53.3%

Level at half-time38.3%

Salernitana lead at half-time8.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Juventus ahead or level91.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Salernitana ahead46.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 735 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juventus: at least 12Actual: 15
Salernitana: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Juventus: at least 6Actual: 9
Salernitana: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juventus score2.29

Attack: Juventus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Salernitana concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Salernitana score0.49

Attack: Salernitana score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.2%3–012.2%4–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.