Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 36

Frosinone–Inter

0–5

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 10 May 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'InterDavide Frattesi
60'InterM. Arnautovic (assist: Davide Frattesi)
77'InterT. Buchanan (assist: Stefano Sensi)
80'InterLautaro Martínez
84'InterMarcus Thuram (assist: Lautaro Martínez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Frosinone		Inter
17	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	11
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
400	Passes	575
342	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Frosinone 0.82 · Inter 2.12. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Frosinone 17 · Inter 14; on target 8 and 5.
Inter kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Giua→

5.11

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.1%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Frosinone, 1.82 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (X2 — draw or Inter win).
These values were computed from 729 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Frosinone to win21.2%

Draw24.7%

Inter to win54.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

4	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Frosinone lead at half-time5.5%

Level at half-time35.0%

Inter lead at half-time59.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Frosinone ahead or level40.5%

12 — not level at half-time65.0%

X2 — level or Inter ahead94.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 729 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Frosinone: at least 10Actual: 4
Inter: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Frosinone: at least 5Actual: 8
Inter: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Frosinone score0.82

Attack: Frosinone score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Inter score2.12

Attack: Inter score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Frosinone concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.12 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.9%0–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.