Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 3

Ajax–Willem II

5–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'AjaxD. Klaassen (assist: K. Dolberg)
45'AjaxJ. Brandt (assist: Lucas Rosa)
69'AjaxV. Tsygankov (assist: O. Gloukh)
74'AjaxO. Gloukh (assist: K. Dolberg)
76'Willem IIA. Ciranni (assist: Uriel van Aalst)
87'AjaxK. Dolberg

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajax		Willem II
33	Shots	10
12	Shots on target	4
26	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
14	Corners	2
3	Offsides	4
70%	Possession	30%
755	Passes	327
691	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajax 2.72 · Willem II 0.77. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Ajax 33 · Willem II 10; on target 12 and 4.
Ajax kept the ball more (70%).

Announced lineup

Ajax

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Míchel

Starting XI

M. Paesgoalkeeper
O. Wijndaldefender
Y. Baasdefender
T. Kehrerdefender
Lucas Rosadefender
J. Brandtmidfielder
J. Mokiomidfielder
D. Klaassenmidfielder
O. Gloukhforward
K. Dolbergforward
S. Berghuisforward

Substitutes

A. Gaaei
A. Ouazane

Unavailable players

Ajax

A. Bouwmanout · injury
D. Blindout · injury
S. Adingraout · Foot Injury

Willem II

A. Culumout · Foot Injury
A. Lachkarout · Groin Injury
A. Zarroukout · Surgery
J. Hoogmaout · not in squad
J. Schuurmanout · Knock
T. Didillon Hodlout · Hamstring Injury
V. van Crooijout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Allard Lindhout, Netherlands→

3.07

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.7%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.36 for Ajax, 0.77 for Willem II.
The highest double chance value is 95.9% (1X — Ajax win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,277 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajax to win86.7%

Draw9.2%

Willem II to win4.1%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 145 of 164 predictions were correct (88.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	3

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Willem II

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: J. Stegeman

Starting XI

M. Delanghegoalkeeper
N. Tjoe-A-Ondefender
M. Dekkerdefender
F. Stamdefender
H. ter Avestdefender
T. Vilhenamidfielder
C. Twigtmidfielder
J. Slorymidfielder
Uriel van Aalstmidfielder
Per van Loonmidfielder
D. Haenforward

Substitutes

A. Ciranni
A. Et-Taïbi
A. Zarrouk
E. Gürbüz
J. Schuurman
Jens Mathijsen
K. de Leeuw
M. Lemmens
O. Martin
T. Verheydt
W. van der Steen

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 18:14.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ajax win or draw95.9%

12 — any result other than a draw90.8%

X2 — draw or Willem II win13.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (9.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Ajax lead at half-time65.0%

Level at half-time29.8%

Willem II lead at half-time5.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ajax ahead or level94.8%

12 — not level at half-time70.2%

X2 — level or Willem II ahead35.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1277 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ajax: at least 8Actual: 6
Willem II: at least 10Actual: 3

Corners

Ajax: at least 6Actual: 14
Willem II: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals79.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 131 of 170 predictions were correct (77.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajax score2.72

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Willem II concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Willem II score0.77

Attack: Willem II score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.5%2–09.0%4–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1277 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 39 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.