Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

PEC Zwolle–Feyenoord

0–7

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'FeyenoordS. Graves (own goal)
23'FeyenoordNacho Ferri (assist: G. Read)
40'FeyenoordG. Zechiël (assist: G. Read)
49'FeyenoordNacho Ferri
63'FeyenoordA. Hadj-Moussa (assist: L. Valente)
69'FeyenoordJ. Zinhagel (assist: G. Read)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PEC Zwolle		Feyenoord
6	Shots	26
3	Shots on target	11
1	Shots inside the box	20
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
383	Passes	644
295	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PEC Zwolle 1.05 · Feyenoord 2.22. On the pitch: 0-7.
Shots PEC Zwolle 6 · Feyenoord 26; on target 3 and 11.
Feyenoord kept the ball more (62%).

Announced lineup

PEC Zwolle

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Henry van der Vegt

Starting XI

J. Schendelaargoalkeeper
D. van der Haardefender
N. Viergeverdefender
S. Gravesdefender
O. Aertssendefender
T. Sommermidfielder
N. Fichtingermidfielder
I. Cissokomidfielder
O. Velanasmidfielder
D. Mbayomidfielder
K. Kostonsforward

Substitutes

D. Verduin
Dylan Ruward

Unavailable players

PEC Zwolle

F. Krastevout · Achilles Tendon Injury
R. Thomasout · injury
S. Floranusout · injury
Y. Namliout · Knee Injury
J. Burgerdoubtful · Knock

Feyenoord

B. Nieuwkoopout · injury
G. Smalout · Ankle Injury
J. Bosout · Knee Injury
J. Moderout · Knee Injury
R. Nelsonout · not in squad
T. Beelenout · Broken Leg

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

A. Bos→

3.06

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.7%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for PEC Zwolle, 2.42 for Feyenoord.
The highest double chance value is 84.9% (X2 — draw or Feyenoord win).
These values were computed from 1,275 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PEC Zwolle to win15.1%

Draw19.2%

Feyenoord to win65.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

77'FeyenoordA. Hadj-Moussa

9	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Jadiel Pereira da Gama

Feyenoord

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: G. van Bronckhorst

Starting XI

T. Ernstgoalkeeper
Mika Màrmoldefender
J. St. Justedefender
T. Watanabedefender
G. Readdefender
C. Vanhouttemidfielder
O. Targhallinemidfielder
G. Zechiëlmidfielder
L. Valentemidfielder
A. Hadj-Moussamidfielder
Nacho Ferriforward

Substitutes

F. Kastenmeier
G. Diarra
J. Zinhagel
Javi López
L. Bossin
M. Deijl
S. Steijn
S. van Persie
T. Kraaijeveld
T. van den Elshout
T. Wessels

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 14:38.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle win or draw34.3%

12 — any result other than a draw80.8%

X2 — draw or Feyenoord win84.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time18.7%

Level at half-time37.5%

Feyenoord lead at half-time43.9%

First-half double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle ahead or level56.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Feyenoord ahead81.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1275 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PEC Zwolle: at least 11Actual: 9
Feyenoord: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

PEC Zwolle: at least 3Actual: 5
Feyenoord: at least 6Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals70.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.05

Attack: PEC Zwolle score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Feyenoord score2.22

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.4%1–18.6%1–38.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1275 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 107 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.