Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

PSV Eindhoven–Sparta Rotterdam

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Sparta RotterdamM. Zonneveld (assist: B. Kuipers)
23'PSV EindhovenS. Mijnans (assist: E. Bajraktarevic)
39'PSV EindhovenK. Sano (assist: E. Bajraktarevic)
74'PSV EindhovenS. Mijnans
88'PSV EindhovenS. Mijnans (assist: L. Geertruida)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		Sparta Rotterdam
28	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	6
17	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	5
5	Offsides	0
76%	Possession	24%
771	Passes	236
715	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 2.88 · Sparta Rotterdam 0.86. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 28 · Sparta Rotterdam 10; on target 10 and 6.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (76%).

Announced lineup

PSV Eindhoven

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: P. Bosz

Starting XI

M. Kovářgoalkeeper
Mauro Juniordefender
A. Obispodefender
L. Geertruidadefender
S. Destdefender
K. Sanomidfielder
G. Tilmidfielder
P. Wannermidfielder
A. Bouhamdiforward
S. Mijnansforward
E. Bajraktarevicforward

Substitutes

A. Santos
D. Man

Unavailable players

PSV Eindhoven

A. Pleaout · injury
J. Schoutenout · Knee Injury
K. Sildilliaout · injury
M. Bro Hansenout · injury
S. Lammersout · Lacking Match Fitness
S. Ouaissaout · Muscle Injury

Sparta Rotterdam

S. Mitoout · not in squad
R. van Cruijsendoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

D. Makkelie→

3.37

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

131

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.4%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.38 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.99 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The highest double chance value is 94.1% (1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,276 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win83.4%

Draw10.7%

Sparta Rotterdam to win5.9%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	3

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Sparta Rotterdam

Formation: 3-4-3 · Manager: R. Meijer

Starting XI

M. Brouwergoalkeeper
B. Martins Indidefender
N. Verschurendefender
M. Youngdefender
B. Kuipersmidfielder
Cedric Hatenboermidfielder
J. Baasmidfielder
L. Martesmidfielder
M. van Bergenforward
M. Zonneveldforward
C. Terhoforward

Substitutes

A. Roaldsøy
B. Reith
F. Bednarek
G. Vianello
I. Babadi
J. Toornstra
Joel Ideho
P. Kuiper
R. van Cruijsen
Teo Quintero

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 18:14.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw94.1%

12 — any result other than a draw89.3%

X2 — draw or Sparta Rotterdam win16.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (10.7%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time56.8%

Level at half-time32.5%

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time10.7%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level89.3%

12 — not level at half-time67.5%

X2 — level or Sparta Rotterdam ahead43.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1276 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 9Actual: 6
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 8Actual: 3

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 7Actual: 9
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals82.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 43 of 53 predictions were correct (81.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score2.88

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score0.86

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–18.9%3–08.3%2–17.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1276 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 141 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.