Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

Fortuna Sittard–Ajax

1–5

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AjaxJ. Brandt
52'Fortuna SittardA. Descotte
62'AjaxT. Kehrer
73'AjaxD. Klaassen (assist: T. Kehrer)
79'AjaxK. Dolberg (assist: O. Gloukh)
90+6'AjaxY. Baas (assist: V. Tsygankov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		Ajax
8	Shots	27
4	Shots on target	11
4	Shots inside the box	24
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	11
2	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
331	Passes	621
270	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.22 · Ajax 1.95. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 8 · Ajax 27; on target 4 and 11.
Ajax kept the ball more (66%).

Announced lineup

Fortuna Sittard

Formation: 5-3-2 · Manager: D. Buijs

Starting XI

M. Branderhorstgoalkeeper
J. Dahlhausdefender
Justin Quincy Hubnerdefender
Rodrigo Guthdefender
P. Brittijndefender
Ivo Pintodefender
Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zandmidfielder
M. Ihattarenmidfielder
É. Michutmidfielder
O. Romenyforward
L. Zeefuikforward

Substitutes

A. Descotte

Unavailable players

Fortuna Sittard

I. Marquezout · injury
K. Petersonout · not in squad
R. Bayramout · Knee Injury
S. Simonsout · Hamstring Injury
S. Wylinout · not in squad
Y. Oukiliout · injury
O. Romenydoubtful · not in squad

Ajax

A. Bouwmanout · injury
D. Blindout · injury
R. Bounidaout · injury
S. Adingraout · Foot Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

J. Manschot→

3.33

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.1%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Fortuna Sittard, 2.47 for Ajax.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (X2 — draw or Ajax win).
These values were computed from 1,271 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win13.5%

Draw18.4%

Ajax to win68.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Ajax

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Míchel

Starting XI

M. ter Stegengoalkeeper
Caio Henriquedefender
Y. Baasdefender
T. Kehrerdefender
A. Gaaeidefender
J. Brandtmidfielder
S. Amrabatmidfielder
J. Mokiomidfielder
O. Edvardsenforward
T. Arokodareforward
S. Berghuisforward

Substitutes

A. Ouazane
D. Janse
D. Klaassen
J. Heerkens
Jofre Torrents
K. Dolberg
Lucas Rosa
M. Paes
Marcos Leonardo
O. Gloukh
O. Wijndal
V. Tsygankov

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 18:14.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard win or draw31.9%

12 — any result other than a draw81.6%

X2 — draw or Ajax win86.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time20.7%

Level at half-time38.0%

Ajax lead at half-time41.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level58.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Ajax ahead79.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1271 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 10Actual: 5
Ajax: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 3
Ajax: at least 5Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals70.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.22

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajax score1.95

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.4%0–28.7%1–38.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1271 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.