Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

AZ Alkmaar–Willem II

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 10%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'AZ AlkmaarJordy Clasie (assist: Mexx Meerdink)
81'Willem IID. Haen (assist: Uriel van Aalst)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Willem II
22	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
679	Passes	338
608	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 2.81 · Willem II 0.76. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 22 · Willem II 8; on target 5 and 2.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (67%).

Announced lineup

AZ Alkmaar

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: L. Echteld

Starting XI

Jari De Bussergoalkeeper
Mateo Chávezdefender
Lewis Schoutendefender
Wouter Goesdefender
Elijah Dijkstradefender
Peer Koopmeinersmidfielder
Jordy Clasiemidfielder
Ro-Zangelo Daalmidfielder
Dave Kwakmanmidfielder
Calvin Stengsmidfielder
Mexx Meerdinkforward

Substitutes

Ayoub Oufkir

Unavailable players

AZ Alkmaar

D. Kasiusout · Groin Injury
Kees Smitout · Groin Injury
S. Resinkout · Knee Injury
H. Verhulstdoubtful · not in squad

Willem II

A. Culumout · Foot Injury
A. Lachkarout · Groin Injury
A. Zarroukout · Surgery
J. Hoogmaout · not in squad
J. Schuurmanout · Knock
T. Didillon Hodlout · Hamstring Injury
V. van Crooijout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

M. van den Kerkhof→

2.51

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.9%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.15 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.76 for Willem II.
The highest double chance value is 95.4% (1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,268 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win84.9%

Draw10.4%

Willem II to win4.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro

Willem II

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: J. Stegeman

Starting XI

M. Delanghegoalkeeper
N. Tjoe-A-Ondefender
M. Dekkerdefender
F. Stamdefender
H. ter Avestdefender
C. Twigtmidfielder
T. Vilhenamidfielder
J. Slorymidfielder
Uriel van Aalstmidfielder
Per van Loonmidfielder
D. Haenforward

Substitutes

A. Ciranni
A. Et-Taïbi
E. Gürbüz
Jens Mathijsen
K. Boogaard
K. de Leeuw
M. Lemmens
O. Martin
T. Verheydt
W. van der Steen

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 18:14.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw95.4%

12 — any result other than a draw89.6%

X2 — draw or Willem II win15.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (10.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time56.6%

Level at half-time33.7%

Willem II lead at half-time9.7%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level90.3%

12 — not level at half-time66.3%

X2 — level or Willem II ahead43.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1268 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 8Actual: 7
Willem II: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 6Actual: 11
Willem II: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals76.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 131 of 170 predictions were correct (77.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score2.81

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Willem II concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Willem II score0.76

Attack: Willem II score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.9%2–010.0%3–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1268 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 38 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.