Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 3

Twente–Telstar

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'TwenteS. Ørjasæter (assist: Y. Taha)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Twente		Telstar
22	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
613	Passes	368
534	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Twente 2.27 · Telstar 1.08. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Twente 22 · Telstar 3; on target 8 and 2.
Twente kept the ball more (63%).

Announced lineup

Twente

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: J. van den Brom

Starting XI

L. Unnerstallgoalkeeper
A. Adelgaarddefender
R. Nijstaddefender
M. Brunsdefender
B. van Rooijdefender
D. Weidmannmidfielder
R. Zerroukimidfielder
S. Ørjasætermidfielder
Y. Tahamidfielder
D. Rotsmidfielder
W. Weghorstforward

Substitutes

F. Thorvaldsen
J. Drommel

Unavailable players

Twente

K. Hlynssonout · not in squad
S. Lemkinout · injury

Telstar

N. Þórissonout · red-card suspension

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

R. Martens→

2.79

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.8%: “Twente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.88 for Twente, 1.00 for Telstar.
The highest double chance value is 91.1% (1X — Twente win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,267 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Twente to win76.8%

Draw14.4%

Telstar to win8.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink

Telstar

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: H. Brugge

Starting XI

R. Koemangoalkeeper
M. Peersmandefender
A. Soualhiadefender
S. Valkdefender
J. Hardeveldmidfielder
T. Owusumidfielder
N. Rossenmidfielder
Gerald Aldersmidfielder
P. Brouwermidfielder
Rui Mendesmidfielder
N. Þórissonforward

Substitutes

A. Martha
D. Reiziger
E. Demircan
F. Turay
Finn Mulder
H. Kuster
Isaiah Ahmed
Jelani Seedorf
N. Nwankwo
N. Shenkman
P. Aning
R. Oudsten

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 16:38.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Twente win or draw91.1%

12 — any result other than a draw85.6%

X2 — draw or Telstar win23.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Twente lead at half-time43.0%

Level at half-time39.1%

Telstar lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Twente ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Telstar ahead57.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1267 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Twente: at least 9Actual: 10
Telstar: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Twente: at least 6Actual: 9
Telstar: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals75.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 131 of 170 predictions were correct (77.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Twente score2.27

Attack: Twente score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Telstar's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Telstar score1.08

Attack: Telstar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.3%3–19.1%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1267 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 38 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.