Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 5

Telstar–Cambuur

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'TelstarN. Þórisson · red card
53'CambuurR. El Arguioui (assist: N. Binder)
60'CambuurN. Binder (assist: I. Hamache)
63'TelstarR. Koeman (penalty)
90+11'TelstarR. Koeman (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Telstar		Cambuur
11	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
324	Passes	441
235	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Telstar 2.70 · Cambuur 1.13. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Telstar 11 · Cambuur 8; on target 2 and 3.
Cambuur kept the ball more (58%).

Unavailable players

Telstar

M. Peersmandoubtful · injury

Cambuur

D. Visserout · Knee Injury
W. Asselmanout · not in squad
J. Berkhoutdoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:10.

Referee

Joey Kooij, Netherlands→

3.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.9%: “Telstar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.17 for Telstar, 1.23 for Cambuur.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — Telstar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,262 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Telstar to win58.9%

Draw21.7%

Cambuur to win19.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Telstar win or draw80.6%

12 — any result other than a draw78.3%

X2 — draw or Cambuur win41.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Telstar lead at half-time72.0%

Level at half-time23.6%

Cambuur lead at half-time4.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Telstar ahead or level95.6%

12 — not level at half-time76.4%

X2 — level or Cambuur ahead28.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1262 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Telstar: at least 10Actual: 7
Cambuur: at least 9Actual: 20

Corners

Telstar: at least 5Actual: 4
Cambuur: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Telstar score2.70

Attack: Telstar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cambuur concede 66% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cambuur score1.13

Attack: Cambuur score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Telstar's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%1–19.9%2–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1262 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 37 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.