Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 5

Heerenveen–AZ Alkmaar

2–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'AZ AlkmaarRo-Zangelo Daal (assist: Wouter Goes)
21'HeerenveenN. Courtens (assist: D. Vente)
30'HeerenveenR. Meerveld (assist: D. Proper)
69'AZ AlkmaarMexx Meerdink (assist: Valdemar Byskov)
83'AZ AlkmaarAyoub Oufkir (assist: Mexx Meerdink)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heerenveen		AZ Alkmaar
14	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	8
10	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
45%	Possession	55%
420	Passes	508
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heerenveen 1.36 · AZ Alkmaar 1.81. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Heerenveen 14 · AZ Alkmaar 15; on target 5 and 8.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (55%).

Unavailable players

Heerenveen

M. Egbringout · injury
M. Hilgersout · Knee Injury
M. Lindayout · not in squad

AZ Alkmaar

D. Kasiusout · Groin Injury
Kees Smitout · Groin Injury
S. Resinkout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands→

3.78

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “Heerenveen to win” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Heerenveen, 2.05 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,262 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heerenveen to win25.2%

Draw23.0%

AZ Alkmaar to win51.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Heerenveen win or draw48.2%

12 — any result other than a draw77.0%

X2 — draw or AZ Alkmaar win74.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Heerenveen lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time39.6%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time35.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Heerenveen ahead or level64.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1262 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heerenveen: at least 10Actual: 9
AZ Alkmaar: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Heerenveen: at least 4Actual: 4
AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heerenveen score1.36

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.81

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.2%1–110.1%2–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1262 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.