Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 5

Groningen–Twente

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Euroborg, Groningen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'TwenteM. Pjaca (assist: W. Weghorst)
18'GroningenT. van Bergen (assist: D. van der Werff)
29'GroningenT. Land (assist: T. Blokzijl)
40'TwenteW. Weghorst (assist: Y. Taha)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Groningen		Twente
21	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
384	Passes	460
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Groningen 1.41 · Twente 1.72. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Groningen 21 · Twente 16; on target 4 and 5.

Unavailable players

Groningen

M. Jengout · Leg Injury
M. Renteout · injury
R. Metuout · injury
T. Merceraout · injury

Twente

K. Hlynssonout · not in squad
S. Lemkinout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:10.

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

3.42

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Twente to win”. Second comes “Groningen to win” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Groningen, 1.99 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,261 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Groningen to win27.4%

Draw23.4%

Twente to win49.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 113 of 165 predictions were correct (68.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Groningen win or draw50.8%

12 — any result other than a draw76.6%

X2 — draw or Twente win72.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Groningen lead at half-time29.3%

Level at half-time40.3%

Twente lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Groningen ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Twente ahead70.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1261 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Groningen: at least 8Actual: 6
Twente: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Groningen: at least 4Actual: 8
Twente: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Groningen score1.41

Attack: Groningen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Twente score1.72

Attack: Twente score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.2%1–210.0%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1261 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 106 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.