Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 5

Willem II–Excelsior

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'ExcelsiorD. Garden (assist: I. Yegoian)
34'ExcelsiorR. Meissen (assist: S. Janssen)
85'ExcelsiorI. Yegoian (assist: S. van Gassel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Willem II		Excelsior
17	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
511	Passes	365
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Willem II 1.35 · Excelsior 1.81. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Willem II 17 · Excelsior 14; on target 2 and 6.
Willem II kept the ball more (59%).

Unavailable players

Willem II

A. Culumout · Foot Injury
A. Lachkarout · Groin Injury
A. Zarroukout · Surgery
J. Schuurmanout · Knock
L. Abildgaardout · not in squad
T. Didillon Hodlout · Hamstring Injury
T. Vilhenaout · not in squad

Excelsior

N. Naujoksout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Robin Hensgens→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Excelsior to win”. Second comes “Willem II to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Willem II, 1.63 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,260 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Willem II to win31.5%

Draw26.0%

Excelsior to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Willem II lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time41.8%

Excelsior lead at half-time36.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Willem II ahead or level64.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1260 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Willem II: at least 8Actual: 11
Excelsior: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Willem II: at least 4Actual: 7
Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Willem II score1.35

Attack: Willem II score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score1.81

Attack: Excelsior score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Willem II concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.