Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 5

NEC Nijmegen–Feyenoord

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'FeyenoordG. Zechiël (assist: Nacho Ferri)
55'NEC NijmegenD. Nejasmic
61'FeyenoordL. Valente (assist: G. Zechiël)
64'Feyenoordunknown (assist: G. Zechiël)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NEC Nijmegen		Feyenoord
12	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	1
2	Offsides	4
62%	Possession	38%
535	Passes	325
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 1.59 · Feyenoord 1.76. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots NEC Nijmegen 12 · Feyenoord 11; on target 2 and 6.
NEC Nijmegen kept the ball more (62%).

Unavailable players

NEC Nijmegen

A. Kaplanout · Knee Injury
D. Fonvilleout · injury
E. Morout · not in squad
P. Sandlerout · injury
S. Ouaissaout · Muscle Injury
D. Nejasmicdoubtful · not in squad

Feyenoord

B. Nieuwkoopout · injury
G. Smalout · Ankle Injury
J. Bosout · Knee Injury
J. Moderout · Knee Injury
T. Beelenout · Broken Leg

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Allard Lindhout→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “NEC Nijmegen to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.83 for Feyenoord.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,258 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win32.9%

Draw24.2%

Feyenoord to win42.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time22.9%

Level at half-time36.7%

Feyenoord lead at half-time40.3%

First-half double chance

1X — NEC Nijmegen ahead or level59.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or Feyenoord ahead77.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1258 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NEC Nijmegen: at least 11Actual: 9
Feyenoord: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

NEC Nijmegen: at least 4Actual: 1
Feyenoord: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.59

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Feyenoord score1.76

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%1–29.5%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.