Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 4

Willem II–Heerenveen

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Willem IIUriel van Aalst (assist: N. Tjoe-A-On)
64'HeerenveenJ. Trenskow (assist: D. Vente)
77'HeerenveenO. Braude (assist: L. Smans)
82'Willem IID. Haen (assist: C. Twigt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Willem II		Heerenveen
12	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
320	Passes	517
245	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Willem II 1.21 · Heerenveen 1.92. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Willem II 12 · Heerenveen 13; on target 5 and 5.
Heerenveen kept the ball more (61%).

Unavailable players

Willem II

A. Culumout · Foot Injury
A. Lachkarout · Groin Injury
A. Zarroukout · Surgery
J. Schuurmanout · Knock
L. Abildgaardout · not in squad
T. Didillon Hodlout · Hamstring Injury
T. Vilhenaout · not in squad

Heerenveen

M. Egbringout · injury
M. Lindayout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:10.

Referee

Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands→

3.88

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “Willem II to win” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Willem II, 2.04 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,253 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Willem II to win23.4%

Draw23.0%

Heerenveen to win53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Willem II win or draw46.4%

12 — any result other than a draw77.0%

X2 — draw or Heerenveen win76.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Willem II lead at half-time25.6%

Level at half-time40.3%

Heerenveen lead at half-time34.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Willem II ahead or level65.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead74.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1253 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Willem II: at least 8Actual: 9
Heerenveen: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

Willem II: at least 3Actual: 9
Heerenveen: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Willem II score1.21

Attack: Willem II score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.92

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Willem II concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.5%1–110.4%0–27.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1253 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 36 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.