Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 3

Cambuur–Feyenoord

2–5

HT 0–4

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'FeyenoordG. Zechiël
26'FeyenoordL. Valente (assist: G. Diarra)
42'FeyenoordT. Jansen (own goal)
45'FeyenoordA. Ueda (penalty)
70'CambuurR. El Arguioui (assist: N. Binder)
80'CambuurR. El Arguioui

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cambuur		Feyenoord
11	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
399	Passes	482
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cambuur 0.76 · Feyenoord 3.17. On the pitch: 2-5.
Shots Cambuur 11 · Feyenoord 14; on target 4 and 7.
Feyenoord kept the ball more (55%).

Unavailable players

Cambuur

D. Visserout · Knee Injury
R. van de Pavertout · Personal Reasons

Feyenoord

B. Nieuwkoopout · injury
G. Smalout · Ankle Injury
J. Bosout · Knee Injury
J. Moderout · Knee Injury
T. Beelenout · Broken Leg

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

3.64

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.0%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.76 for Cambuur, 3.17 for Feyenoord.
The highest double chance value is 95.4% (X2 — draw or Feyenoord win).
These values were computed from 1,247 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cambuur to win4.6%

Draw10.4%

Feyenoord to win85.0%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

G. Zechiël (assist: J. Lotomba)

14	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,091 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cambuur win or draw15.0%

12 — any result other than a draw89.6%

X2 — draw or Feyenoord win95.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (10.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–4

Cambuur lead at half-time6.0%

Level at half-time23.4%

Feyenoord lead at half-time70.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cambuur ahead or level29.4%

12 — not level at half-time76.6%

X2 — level or Feyenoord ahead94.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1247 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cambuur: at least 9Actual: 14
Feyenoord: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Cambuur: at least 3Actual: 3
Feyenoord: at least 7Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals76.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 131 of 170 predictions were correct (77.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cambuur score0.76

Attack: Cambuur score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Feyenoord score3.17

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Cambuur concede 88% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.17 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–310.8%0–29.9%1–38.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1247 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 36 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.